AFL Best Bets
A best bet is the Australian bookmaker price that sits furthest above the fair price. The fair price comes from Pinnacle, or the Betfair exchange, with their margin removed. Every price is compared across the bookmakers in the OzFootball feed, and the pick changes as prices move. No AFL markets are open right now, so this page shows the last round's picks at the closing price, with results.
Last best bet of the day, Saturday 26 September
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions, Sat 26 Sep 2:30 PM
Under 182.5 total points
$1.90 with 
- Fair price
- $1.82
- Pinnacle, margin removed
- Edge
- +4.3%
- chance 55%
- Compared
- 4
- Australian books
Result: Lost
Edge is the expected return per $1 at this price if the fair price is right. It is a price comparison, not a prediction. How best bets are picked.
Best bet for every match last round
| Match | Best bet | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane LionsSat 26 Sep 2:30 PM | Under 182.5Total points,  TAB | $1.90 | +4.3% | Lost |
Closing prices, 15 minutes before each first bounce.
2026 record, tested on closing prices
This is a backtest: the same method applied to every 2026 match after the season, using the prices 15 minutes before the first bounce. These picks were not published at the time. $1 level stakes at the best Australian price.
| Pick | Bets | Won | Lost | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best bet of the day | 69 | 44 | 25 | +4.48 | +6.5% |
| Best bet every match | 98 | 63 | 35 | +2.86 | +2.9% |
Latest best bets of the day
| Under 182.5Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions, Sat 26 Sep | $1.90 TAB | Lost |
| Brisbane LionsHawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions, Sat 19 Sep | $1.85  Sportsbet | Won |
| Brisbane Lions -21.5Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows, Sat 12 Sep | $1.91 Sportsbet | Won |
| Geelong CatsFremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats, Fri 11 Sep | $2.70 TAB | Lost |
| Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs, Sat 5 Sep | $1.36  Ladbrokes | Won |
| Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues, Sat 29 Aug | $1.98  PlayUp | Lost |
| Essendon BombersEssendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power, Sun 23 Aug | $2.15  Neds | Lost |
| Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants, Sat 22 Aug | $1.27  Bet Right | Won |
| Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions, Fri 21 Aug | $3.60  TABtouch | Lost |
| St Kilda SaintsSt Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns, Thu 20 Aug | $1.50 Bet Right | Lost |
| Carlton Blues -21.5Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues, Sun 16 Aug | $1.90 TAB | Lost |
| St Kilda SaintsRichmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints, Sat 15 Aug | $1.33 Neds | Won |
Think! About your choices. Gamble Responsibly. 18+. Gambler's Help 1800 858 858.
Gamble Responsibly
Think! About your choices. Set a deposit limit. Gambling problem? Call Gambler's Help 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. Odds and markets shown for informational purposes only. OzFootball Stats does not accept wagers. 18+ only.