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OzFootball

How best bets are picked

How the AFL best bets and the fair prices on every match odds page are worked out, what the record measures, and where the method stops.

The method

  1. 1Collect every price. The OzFootball feed reads every match market from the Australian bookmakers it covers, every 5 minutes in the last six hours before a match, every 15 to 30 minutes in the day before, and every 2 to 6 hours further out.
  2. 2Find the fair price. Pinnacle, a bookmaker known for low margins and for taking large bets, is read at the same line. Its prices are converted to probabilities (1 divided by the price) and the margin is removed with the power method, which takes more of it out of the longshot than the favourite, because that is where bookmakers load it. Where Pinnacle has no price at that line, the Betfair exchange is used, taking the middle of its back and lay prices. Where neither prices the match at all (AFLW at present), the fair price is the median of at least four Australian bookmakers with their margin removed, and the page labels it market consensus.
  3. 3Compare. For every selection, the best Australian price is multiplied by the fair probability. Above 1 means the price pays more than the fair price implies; the difference is the edge. A $2.10 price on a selection with a fair price of $2.00 has an edge of 5%.
  4. 4Pick. The best bet for a match is the selection with the biggest edge in head to head, line or total, priced by at least three Australian bookmakers, at $4.00 or shorter, with an edge of no more than 10%. The best bet of the day is the biggest edge among that day's matches. If nothing is above the fair price, the page says so and shows the closest price instead.

The record

The record on the best bets page grades each pick against the final score, at $1 level stakes, at the best Australian price shown. Line and total bets that land exactly on the number are a push (stake returned). A drawn match settles head to head bets as a dead heat: half the stake is paid at the price and half is lost.

The 2026 figures are a backtest. The method was applied after the season to the prices captured 15 minutes before each first bounce, from The Odds API historical feed. Those picks were not published at the time. From the 2027 season the record is graded from closing prices captured live, before each match starts.

What the method does not do

  • A fair price is an estimate. Pinnacle and Betfair are sharp markets, but they are not always right, and a price above fair can still lose.
  • Only head to head, line and total are eligible, because those are the markets Pinnacle and Betfair price for AFL. Alternate lines, quarters and team totals are compared on price only.
  • Lines must match exactly. If Pinnacle posts -16.5 and the Australian books post -17.5, that selection has no fair price and cannot be a best bet.
  • Bookmaker prices can change or be withdrawn between the feed reading them and you placing a bet. Always check the price with the bookmaker.
  • Prices longer than $4.00 are left out. Pinnacle's AFL longshot prices move least and take the smallest bets, so they are the weakest guide to a fair price. On 2026 closing prices, including them turned a small profit into a loss of about 2%.
  • Edges above 10% are left out. Against a sharp closing price, a gap that large is almost always a stale or mis-posted price that the bookmaker will not honour.
  • Betfair prices are shown before commission, which is charged on winnings.

Think! About your choices. Gamble Responsibly. 18+. Gambler's Help 1800 858 858.

Gamble Responsibly

Think! About your choices. Set a deposit limit. Gambling problem? Call Gambler's Help 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. Odds and markets shown for informational purposes only. OzFootball Stats does not accept wagers. 18+ only.