AFL Multi Calculator
Enter the decimal price of each leg of your footy multi and a stake, and get the combined multi price, the total return, the profit and the implied probability of the whole bet landing.
Multi Calculator
Inputs
4 of 20 legs
The amount going on the multi as a whole, not per leg.
Results
- Multi price
- 14.18
- Total return
- $283.50
- Profit
- $263.50
- Implied probability
- 7.05%
Product of every leg price
Chance of every leg landing at these prices
| Leg | Decimal price | Implied probability | Running multi price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 1 | 1.80 | 55.56% | 1.80 |
| Leg 2 | 2.10 | 47.62% | 3.78 |
| Leg 3 | 1.50 | 66.67% | 5.67 |
| Leg 4 | 2.50 | 40.00% | 14.18 |
A multi is called a parlay or an accumulator in other markets. Every leg has to win for the bet to pay, and the margin built into each leg multiplies rather than averages, so the combined price sits further below fair value with every leg added.
How the AFL Multi Calculator works
A multi, known elsewhere as a parlay or accumulator, rolls the return from each leg into the stake for the next. Multiplying the decimal prices together gives the combined price directly, so four legs at 1.80, 2.10, 1.50 and 2.50 combine to 14.175. Every leg must win for the bet to pay, which is why the price climbs so quickly as legs are added.
The implied probability of the multi is the reciprocal of the combined price, and it falls just as fast. The important consequence is that the bookmaker margin compounds too. If each leg carries roughly 4 per cent margin, a four leg multi carries closer to 17 per cent, which is why multis are far more profitable for the book than the same legs bet singly.
Multi odds = odds 1 x odds 2 x ... x odds n Return = stake x multi odds Profit = return - stake
Example
Four legs at 1.80, 2.10, 1.50 and 2.50 combine to a multi price of 14.18. A $20 stake returns $283.50 for a profit of $263.50, and the implied probability of all four landing is 7.05%.
How to use it
- Enter the decimal price of your first leg, for example 1.80.
- Add each remaining leg with its own decimal price.
- Enter the stake you want to place on the multi, for example 20.
- Read the combined price, total return, profit and implied probability.
AFL Multi Calculator FAQ
Why does the bookmaker margin compound on a multi?
Each leg is priced with a margin already built in, and combining legs multiplies those margins together rather than averaging them. If a single leg is priced at 96 per cent of its fair value, four such legs land at roughly 0.96 to the power of four, or about 85 per cent. The multi therefore returns around 15 per cent less than the same four legs would if each were fairly priced. This holds even when every individual leg looks like a reasonable price.
What happens if one leg of my multi is voided?
Standard practice among Australian bookmakers is to remove the voided leg and recalculate the multi at the remaining legs. A four leg multi with one void becomes a three leg multi at the same stake, so the price drops and the potential return falls. A void leg is removed from the multi and its stake is not refunded separately. Common causes are a scratched runner, a late player withdrawal in a player prop leg, or an abandoned match.
Are multi legs really independent?
Across separate AFL matches they are close to independent, so multiplying the prices is a reasonable model. Within the same match they are not, and multiplying will misprice the bet badly. A team winning and a forward kicking three goals are positively correlated, for example. Bookmakers handle this with a same game multi product priced with its own model, which is why an SGM never equals the product of its legs. Use the SGM calculator to compare the two.
Is a multi ever better value than betting the legs singly?
On raw expected value, no. Combining legs compounds the margin, so the multi returns less than the sum of the same stakes placed as singles at the same prices. What a multi changes is the shape of the outcome: a small stake with a small chance of a large return, rather than several moderate results. If a bookmaker adds a genuine boost, such as a multiplier on the final price, that can offset some of the compounded margin, but the base bet is worse.
How many legs should a multi have?
There is no correct number, but the compounding works against you with every leg added, and the probability of all legs landing falls faster than most people intuitively expect. Four legs at around 1.90 each has roughly a 12 per cent chance of paying. Ten legs at the same prices is closer to 0.7 per cent. If the goal is a large return from a small stake then more legs deliver that, at the cost of a materially worse price relative to fair value.
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