AFL Dutching Calculator
Enter several AFL selections in the same market and a total stake, and get the split that returns the same amount whichever of your selections wins.
Dutching Calculator
Inputs
Spread across every selection above.
Results
Combined overround -27.78%: the dutch returns a profit
The selections have a combined implied probability of 72.22%, which is below 100 per cent, so a negative overround. One of them still has to win.
- Return, whichever wins
- $138.46
- Profit
- $38.46
- Combined implied probability
- 72.22%
- Combined overround
- -27.78%
+38.46% on outlay
Break-even strike rate for the group
Negative means a profitable dutch
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Stake | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selection 1 | 3.00 | 33.33% | $46.15 | $138.46 |
| Selection 2 | 4.50 | 22.22% | $30.77 | $138.46 |
| Selection 3 | 6.00 | 16.67% | $23.08 | $138.46 |
| Total | 72.22% | $100.00 | $138.46 |
Dutching usually covers only part of a market, so the whole stake is lost if a selection you did not back wins. Rounding stakes to whole cents shifts the returns slightly, so check the worst of them still clears your total outlay before placing the bets.
How the AFL Dutching Calculator works
Dutching spreads one stake across several selections in the same market so that every one of them returns the same amount. Each selection takes a share of the stake in proportion to its implied probability, so short prices get more of the stake and long prices get less. The result is a single return figure rather than a different payout depending on which one comes in.
The bet is profitable whenever the implied probabilities of your selections add to less than 100 per cent, and the return rises the further below that total sits. Covering more selections raises the chance of collecting and lowers the return, so the trade-off is entirely in which selections you leave out.
Total implied = sum of (1 / odds) Stake on selection i = total stake x (1 / odds i) / total implied Return = total stake / total implied
Example
Three selections at 3.00, 4.50 and 6.00 have a combined implied probability of 72.22%. Splitting $100 gives stakes of $46.15, $30.77 and $23.08, returning $138.46 whichever of the three wins, for a profit of $38.46 or 38.46% on outlay.
How to use it
- Enter the decimal price of each selection you want to back, for example 3.00, 4.50 and 6.00.
- Enter the total stake you want to spread across them, for example 100.
- Read the individual stake for each selection.
- Check the combined implied probability sits below 100% before placing the bets.
AFL Dutching Calculator FAQ
How is dutching different from an arbitrage?
The arithmetic is the same, but the intent is not. An arbitrage covers every outcome in a market, so the return is guaranteed. Dutching usually covers a subset of the outcomes, so you can still lose the whole stake if something you did not back wins. Dutching is a way of expressing an opinion across several selections at once; arbitrage is a way of taking a price discrepancy with no opinion at all.
When does dutching make sense?
It suits markets with many outcomes where you can rule several out but cannot separate the ones left, such as an AFL first goal scorer market or a futures market. Backing three or four selections at a single equalised return is simpler to manage than sizing each one separately, and it puts your money where your read actually is. It makes little sense on a two-way market, where covering both sides is either an arbitrage or a guaranteed loss.
What does the combined implied probability tell me?
It is the break-even point for the dutch. If your selections have a combined implied probability of 72.22 per cent, one of them has to win more than 72.22 per cent of the time for the bet to be worth placing. Because bookmaker prices already carry a margin, that break-even figure is higher than the true chance the prices imply. The wider the gap between your own estimate and this number, the stronger the case for the bet.
Should I round the individual stakes?
Small rounding is fine and often necessary, since bookmakers work in whole cents and some enforce minimum stakes. Rounding shifts the returns slightly, so one selection will pay a little more and another a little less than the headline figure. If you are dutching close to the break-even point, round each stake up rather than down on the selections you rate highest, and check the worst return still clears your total outlay.
Can I dutch across different bookmakers?
Yes, and taking the best available price on each selection is exactly how you push the combined implied probability down. The practical issues are the same as with arbitrage: prices move while you place the legs, and stake limits may stop you getting the full amount on. Place the shortest priced selection first, since it carries the largest share of the stake and is the one most likely to leave you exposed if it fails to fill.
Gamble Responsibly
Think! About your choices. Set a deposit limit. Gambling problem? Call Gambler's Help 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. Odds and markets shown for informational purposes only. OzFootball Stats does not accept wagers. 18+ only.