AFL Hedge Calculator
Enter an open AFL bet and the price now available on the other side, and get the hedge stake that locks in the same result whichever way the match lands.
Hedge Calculator
Inputs
Equalise both outcomes, or stake only enough to get the original stake back.
The price your open bet was struck at.
The price now available on the opposite outcome.
Results
Locks in $37.88 either way
The original bet returns $350.00 if it wins, so a hedge stake of $212.12 at 1.65 returns the same amount on the other side.
- Hedge stake
- $212.12
- Total outlay
- $312.12
- Original bet return
- $350.00
- Locked profit
- +$37.88
On the opposite outcome
Original stake plus hedge stake
If the original bet wins
+12.14% on outlay
| Outcome | Return | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Original bet wins | $350.00 | +$37.88 |
| Hedge wins | $350.00 | +$37.88 |
| Total outlay | $312.12 |
Equalising both outcomes does not guarantee a profit. If the original price has drifted rather than shortened, the locked figure is negative and the hedge fixes a loss instead. Hedging also gives up whatever expected value the open position still holds, so compare the certain figure against leaving the bet to run.
How the AFL Hedge Calculator works
Hedging means backing the outcome opposite to a bet you already hold, so that both results pay the same. The hedge stake is set by dividing the return your original bet would produce by the price now available on the other side. Whatever happens, one of the two bets returns that amount, and your profit is that return less everything you have staked.
Whether hedging is worth doing is a separate question from the arithmetic. Locking in a smaller certain result gives up the expected value of the open position, unless the price has moved far enough that the hedge itself is the better bet. The calculator gives you the certain number so you can compare it against holding the position and letting it run.
Original return = original stake x original odds Hedge stake = original return / hedge odds Locked profit = original return - original stake - hedge stake
Example
A $100 bet at 3.00 would return $300. With the opposite outcome now available at 1.70, a hedge stake of $176.47 gives a $300 return either way. Total outlay is $276.47, so the locked profit is $23.53.
How to use it
- Enter the stake and price of the bet you already hold, for example $100 at 3.00.
- Enter the price now available on the opposite outcome, for example 1.70.
- Read the hedge stake needed to equalise both outcomes.
- Compare the locked profit against leaving the original bet to run.
AFL Hedge Calculator FAQ
When is hedging worth doing?
Hedging makes sense when the certainty is worth more to you than the expected value you give up, or when the market has moved so far that the hedge price itself is good value. A futures bet that has shortened dramatically is the classic case: the locked profit is meaningful relative to the original stake and the remaining upside is not worth the variance. Hedging a single match bet a few minutes after placing it usually just pays two lots of margin for nothing.
Does hedging always guarantee a profit?
No. The calculator locks in an equal return on both outcomes, but that return can be less than your total outlay if the prices do not support a profit. If your original price has drifted rather than shortened, hedging locks in a loss instead, and the calculator will show that as a negative figure. The guaranteed part is the equality of the two outcomes, not the sign of the result.
Can I hedge only part of a bet?
Yes, and it is common. Staking less than the full hedge amount leaves you with more profit if the original bet wins and less if it does not, which sits between doing nothing and locking in fully. A frequent approach is to hedge enough to recover the original stake, so the position cannot lose, while keeping exposure to the larger payout. Run the full hedge figure first so you know what the ceiling is, then scale down from there.
How is hedging different from arbitrage?
Arbitrage places both sides at the same time, at prices that already guarantee a profit before either bet is struck. Hedging places the second side later, at whatever price is available then, on a position you already hold. Arbitrage is a pricing opportunity; hedging is risk management on an existing bet. The arithmetic overlaps, which is why the two calculators look similar, but the decision behind them is different.
Should I hedge on the same bookmaker or a different one?
Use whichever offers the best price on the outcome you need, since the hedge stake falls as the hedge price lengthens and the locked profit rises with it. Some bookmakers offer a cash out on the original bet instead, which is a hedge they price themselves. Cash out figures usually sit below the number this calculator produces, because the operator takes a margin on both sides of the transaction. Comparing the two is worth doing before accepting a cash out.
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