AFL Bonus Bet Calculator
Australian bookmakers issue bonus bets where the stake is not returned. Enter the bonus amount, the AFL price you would back it at and the price available on the other side, and get the stake that converts it to a fixed cash return.
Bonus Bet Calculator
Inputs
Australian bonus bets are almost always stake not returned.
The face value printed on the offer.
Longer prices retain more of the face value.
The price you can lay the same outcome at, usually on a betting exchange.
The rate your exchange takes on net winnings. Set it to zero if no commission applies.
Results
- Lay stake
- $40.00
- Cash kept either way
- $38.00
- Retained value
- 76.00%
- Bonus leg return
- $150.00
Cash to lay on the other side
Cash kept as a share of the face value
Profit only, the bonus stake is not returned
| Result | Bonus leg | Lay bet | Cash kept |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus bet wins | $150.00 | -$112.00 | $38.00 |
| Bonus bet loses | $0.00 | $38.00 | $38.00 |
Laying $40.00 at this price carries a liability of $112.00, which has to be in the exchange account before the bet goes on. The retained value holds only if the lay is matched in full at the price shown. Prices move, exchange liquidity can be thin on AFL markets, and the terms attached to the bonus set whether this is available to you at all.
How the AFL Bonus Bet Calculator works
A bonus bet in Australia is almost always stake not returned, so a winning bonus bet pays the profit portion only. A $50 bonus at 4.00 returns $150, not $200. That changes the maths compared with a cash bet and it is why bonus bets are worth less than their face value.
Backing the bonus at one price and covering the other side with cash converts the bonus into a fixed amount that you keep regardless of the result. The calculator works out that covering stake and the cash you end up with, expressed as a percentage of the face value so you can compare one bonus offer against another.
Hedge stake = (bonus x (back odds - 1)) / (lay odds - commission) Locked profit = hedge stake x (1 - commission) Retained value = locked profit / bonus x 100
Example
A $50 stake not returned bonus bet backed at 4.00 and covered on the other side at 3.80 with 5% commission needs a covering stake of $40.00. The result is $38.00 in cash either way, which is 76.00% of the face value of the bonus.
How to use it
- Enter the face value of the bonus bet, for example 50.
- Enter the price you would back the bonus bet at, for example 4.00.
- Enter the price available on the other side and any exchange commission, for example 3.80 and 5%.
- Read the covering stake, the locked cash figure and the retained value.
AFL Bonus Bet Calculator FAQ
Why is a bonus bet worth less than its face value?
Because the stake is not returned. A $50 cash bet at 4.00 returns $200, of which $150 is profit and $50 is your money back. A $50 bonus bet at the same price returns only the $150. On top of that, covering the other side costs money, so the amount you can reliably keep is lower again. Typical retained value on a stake not returned bonus sits somewhere in the region of 65 to 80 per cent depending on the prices available.
What price should I use a bonus bet at?
Longer prices retain more of the face value, because the stake you are not getting back is a smaller share of the total return. At 2.00 a bonus bet is worth roughly half its face value; at 6.00 it is worth substantially more. The limit is practical: covering the other side of a long shot requires a large cash outlay, and the prices available on the other side get worse relative to fair value as the market becomes lopsided.
What is the commission input for?
It applies when you cover the other side on a betting exchange, where the operator takes a percentage of net winnings rather than building a margin into the price. Set it to the commission rate your exchange charges on that market. If you are covering with a standard bookmaker rather than an exchange, set commission to zero, since the cost there is already inside the price you are being offered rather than deducted afterwards.
Do bonus bets have wagering or turnover conditions?
Terms vary between operators and change often. Common conditions include a minimum price the bonus can be used at, an expiry date, a restriction to certain markets, and rules about whether winnings from a bonus bet are withdrawable immediately or must be turned over first. Australian regulations also restrict how these offers can be advertised and to whom. Read the specific terms attached to the bonus, because they determine whether the calculation above is even available to you.
What does retained value mean?
It is the cash you end up with divided by the face value of the bonus, expressed as a percentage. A $50 bonus that reliably converts to $38 has a retained value of 76 per cent. It is the right number for comparing two offers of different sizes, and for deciding whether an offer is worth the account opening and the turnover conditions attached to it. It is not a return on your own money, since the bonus was not your money to begin with.
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