AFL Arbitrage Calculator
Enter prices from different Australian bookmakers on opposite sides of an AFL market and a total stake, and get the split across both bets, the return either way and whether an arbitrage exists. AFL matches can be drawn, so the three-way option is there too.
Arbitrage Calculator
Inputs
Use three-way when the draw settles as its own outcome, which an AFL match can produce.
The combined outlay across every bet, not the stake on each one.
Best available decimal price on the first outcome.
Best available price on the opposite outcome, usually at another bookmaker.
Results
Arbitrage of 3.73% at these prices
The implied probabilities add to 96.40%, which is under 100%, so the split below returns $103.73 whichever outcome lands.
- Total implied probability
- 96.40%
- Return either way
- $103.73
- Profit
- $3.73
- Return on outlay
- 3.73%
Under 100% means an arbitrage exists
Profit as a share of the total stake
| Outcome | Decimal price | Implied probability | Stake | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome A | 2.10 | 47.62% | $49.40 | $103.73 |
| Outcome B | 2.05 | 48.78% | $50.60 | $103.73 |
| Total | - | 96.40% | $100.00 | $103.73 |
This split needs accounts at more than one bookmaker and both bets on at the prices shown. Prices move, stakes get limited, and rounding the stakes leaves one side slightly worse than the other, so check the return on the worse side still clears the total outlay.
How the AFL Arbitrage Calculator works
An arbitrage exists when the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market, taken at the best price available anywhere, add to less than 100 per cent. That happens when two bookmakers disagree enough that the gap between them is wider than the margin each is holding. Splitting a stake in proportion to each implied probability then returns the same amount whichever side wins.
The calculator works out that split for you and reports the return on both outcomes so you can check they match. In practice the numbers rarely stay put: prices move, stakes get limited, and a rounded stake leaves one side slightly better than the other. Treat the output as the ideal split and check that the return on the worse side is still above the total outlay after rounding.
Total implied = 1 / odds A + 1 / odds B Arbitrage exists when total implied < 1 Stake A = total stake x (1 / odds A) / total implied
Example
Prices of 2.10 and 2.05 on opposite sides give a total implied probability of 96.40%, so an arbitrage of 3.73% exists. Splitting $100 gives $49.40 on the 2.10 and $50.60 on the 2.05, returning $103.73 either way for a profit of $3.73.
How to use it
- Enter the best available decimal price on the first outcome, for example 2.10.
- Enter the best available price on the opposite outcome, for example 2.05.
- Enter the total amount you want to stake across both bets, for example 100.
- Read the stake split and confirm the return is above the total outlay on both sides.
AFL Arbitrage Calculator FAQ
Why do arbitrage opportunities disappear so quickly?
They exist because two books have priced the same event differently, and both are watching the market. AFL head-to-head prices move on team news, weather and the flow of money, so a gap that opens on a Thursday team announcement can close within minutes. The practical constraint is not finding the arb but getting both legs on at the prices you saw. If one leg fills and the other has moved, you are left holding a single-sided bet, which is a different risk entirely.
Will bookmakers restrict accounts that place arbitrage bets?
Australian bookmakers actively monitor betting patterns and commonly limit stake sizes on accounts they identify as arbitrage or value bettors. Signals include consistently taking prices just before they shorten, unusual stake amounts that match an arb split, and betting only into the best price in the market. Restriction is a commercial decision by the bookmaker and there is no obligation on them to keep offering full stakes. This is why arbitrage returns tend to shrink as accounts age.
What does the arbitrage percentage actually mean?
It is the profit as a share of the total amount staked across both legs. A 3.73 per cent arb on a $100 total outlay returns $103.73 regardless of the result, so $3.73 profit. It is not an annual return or a return on bankroll, and it does not account for the funds tied up in both accounts or the time spent placing the bets. Comparing arbs on this percentage is fine; comparing it to other investment returns is not.
Can I run an arbitrage across more than two outcomes?
Yes, the same rule applies to any number of outcomes: sum the implied probability of each at the best available price and check whether the total is under 100 per cent. This calculator handles the two-way case, which covers AFL head-to-head, line and total markets, since AFL matches are settled with a result on both sides. Markets with three or more outcomes, such as a draw-inclusive soccer market, need every outcome covered or the arb does not hold.
What happens if one leg is voided or the market is settled differently?
This is the main hidden risk. If two bookmakers settle the same event on different rules, for example one voiding a player market when the player is a late withdrawal and the other paying it out, an arbitrage can turn into a one-sided open position. Deadheat rules, different treatment of abandoned matches and different definitions of a statistic all cause this. Check the settlement terms on both legs match before treating the position as risk free.
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