AFL Player Prop Calculator
Enter a player prop line and the price on offer, then read it against a real season average and hit rate drawn from the OzFootball match database.
Player Prop Checker
Prop line and sample
The stat the line is set on.
No player averages are posted right now, so the average is typed in by hand.
The player's average for this stat across the season.
Usually a half number, so the market cannot push.
The decimal price the bookmaker is quoting.
How many recent matches the hit rate is counted over.
How many of those matches finished above the line.
Hit rate against the price
Sample hit rate sits 12.37 points above the break-even strike rate
13 of 20 matches finished over 24.5, against a price of 1.90. The gap is not an edge on its own: the price already contains the bookmaker margin, and a sample this size carries a wide error band.
- Hit rate
- 65.00%
- Break-even strike rate
- 52.63%
- Difference
- +12.37%
- Season average
- 26.4
Matches over the line, share of the sample
Implied by the price on offer
Hit rate less the break-even figure
+1.9 against the line
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Matches over the line | 13 |
| Matches under the line | 7 |
| Hit rate | 65.00% |
| Price the hit rate implies, before margin | 1.54 |
| Break-even strike rate at the price on offer | 52.63% |
A hit rate is a frequency in a finite sample, not a probability. On a 20-match sample, two matches move it by 10 percentage points, which is well inside ordinary variation. The break-even figure is derived from a posted price that already contains the bookmaker margin, so a hit rate sitting slightly above it is not evidence of an edge. Strip the margin out with the devig calculator before treating either number as one.
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How the AFL Player Prop Calculator works
A player prop asks a single question: does the player finish above or below a number. The checker answers it two ways. It counts how many matches in the sample finished over the line, which gives a hit rate, and it converts the price on offer into the strike rate that price needs to break even, which is one divided by the decimal odds. Lines are usually set at a half number so a push cannot occur, since the underlying stat is an integer.
The two figures are not the same kind of number and should not be read as if they were. A hit rate is a frequency in a finite sample, not a probability, and a sample of 15 or 20 matches carries a wide error band around whatever it reports. Role changes, injury, the opponent and the weather all sit inside that sample without being labelled. The break-even figure also has a known bias: the posted price contains the bookmaker margin, so it is a price-derived hurdle rather than a fair probability. Strip the margin out with the devig calculator before treating either number as an edge.
Hit rate = matches finishing over the line / matches in the sample x 100 Break-even strike rate = 1 / decimal odds x 100 Difference = hit rate - break-even strike rate
Example
A line of 24.5 disposals against a sample of 20 matches, in which the player finished on 25 or more disposals 13 times, gives a hit rate of 13 / 20 = 65.00 per cent, against a season average of 26.4 disposals. A price of 1.90 needs 52.63 per cent to break even, so the sample sits 12.37 percentage points above the break-even figure.
How to use it
- Enter the prop line on offer, for example 24.5 disposals.
- Enter the decimal price for the over, for example 1.90.
- Set how many recent matches the sample should cover.
- Compare the hit rate against the break-even strike rate for that price.
AFL Player Prop Calculator FAQ
What does a hit rate actually tell me?
It tells you how often the stat finished above the line across the matches in the sample, and nothing more. It is a frequency, not a probability, and it carries no information about why those matches finished where they did. On a 20-match sample, a hit rate of 65 per cent and one of 55 per cent are separated by only two matches, which is well inside the range that ordinary variation produces. Read it as a starting point for a question, not as an answer.
Why are prop lines set at half numbers?
Because the underlying stat is a whole number. Disposals, marks, tackles and goals cannot land on 24.5, so a line at 24.5 guarantees one side wins and the other loses with no possibility of a push. Whole-number lines do exist on some markets and those can push, with stakes refunded and multis recalculated without that leg. If the line you are quoted has no half point, check the settlement terms before assuming the bet must resolve one way or the other.
Does the break-even figure account for the bookmaker margin?
No, and that is the main trap. The break-even strike rate is one divided by the decimal odds, and the price it is derived from already contains the margin the bookmaker is holding. So a hit rate sitting slightly above the break-even figure is not evidence of an edge, because part of the gap is the margin working against you. To compare a hit rate against something closer to a fair probability, run both sides of the market through the devig calculator first.
How many matches should the sample cover?
There is no correct answer, only a trade-off. A longer sample reduces the noise in the hit rate but includes matches played in a different role, a different position or a different level of fitness, which makes the figure less relevant to the match in front of you. A shorter sample is more current and far noisier. Rather than picking one, check whether the hit rate holds up across both a short and a long window, and treat a figure that only appears in one as weak.
Can I check an alternate line the same way?
Yes. An alternate line is the same market with a different threshold and a correspondingly different price, so the method does not change: count how many matches in the sample cleared the new number and convert the new price into its break-even strike rate. What changes is the balance between them. Longer alternate lines have much lower hit rates and much lower break-even hurdles, so small differences in the sample move the comparison further than they do at a standard line.
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